Showing posts with label groupon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label groupon. Show all posts

2.24.2011

Barnes & Noble Bankruptcy Index: B&N's shares are going down by more than 20 percent this week

This week our B&N bankruptcy index is one day late (usually it's published on Wednesdays) due to our need to digest B&N's quarterly report that was published earlier this week, as well as its share's slide in more than 20% in just couple of days. With this hectic week, Borders' bankruptcy looks like old news already..

Just a short reminder - As Borders filed for bankruptcy, we look at Barnes & Noble, the nation's largest book chain to see if they will follow Borders and also go into bankruptcy and if so, when exactly.

To do it more analytically we launched few weeks ago a new B&N Bankruptcy Index, which is based on 10 parameters, which receive a grade between 1-10 (1 - worst grade, 10 - best grade). Hence we receive a 0-100 point index scale, which we divide into several ranges as follows:

90-100: B&N is in an excellent shape. Couldn't be better!
80-89: B&N is doing great. Bankruptcy is no longer a real threat.
70-79: B&N could do better and has to be cautious of bankruptcy.
60-69: B&N doesn't look too good and bankruptcy is becoming a more realistic threat.
50-59: Bankruptcy is a clear and present danger.
49 and less: Red alert! Bankruptcy is just around the corner and is likely to happen within a short time frame.

We will check the
B&N Bankruptcy Index every Wednesday, updating each one of the parameters included in the index and will analyze the trend. You can follow the weekly changes in the index from the day it was launched on the Barnes and Noble Bankruptcy Index page on our website.

So here's our update for this week (in brackets is last week's grade):

1. Confidence of the stock market in B&N

This parameter will look at the performance of the B&N stock (symbol:
BKS) in the last week. The performance of B&N's stock is an indication of the confidence the market has in the ability of B&N to maintain a viable business.

So let's look at last week's figures:


2/16: $18.77
2/23: $14.70
Change: -21.7%


As you can see, B&N's stock had a very bad week. Just for comparison, the S&P500 Index fell during this period in 2.2% and Amazon fell in 5.3%. This is a BIG change - the stock lost 20% of its value in about one week and most of it happened after B&N announced this week it
suspends its dividend to preserve its shrinking cash reserves to invest in the digital side of its business.

Tim Beyers explained the situation on The Motley Fool:
Yesterday, Foolish colleague Matt Koppenheffer compared B&N to Ice-T racing madly through the woods in the B-movie Surviving the Game. To me, the scene feels a lot more like the Colonial fleet trying to escape the Cylons in the Scyfy Channel's excellent reimagining of Battlestar Galactica.

Now what:
The competition is just as tough. Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) has created a store for any device in a move somewhat reminiscent of Amazon.com's (Nasdaq: AMZN) strategy to spread its Kindle store far and wide. Barnes & Noble was never going to have an easy time in that environment. It certainly hasn't so far. In the closing episode of Galactica (spoiler alert!), the relative handful of survivors left from the original 50,000 colonists spread across a new planet stuck in a prehistoric age. Their aim? Start over from scratch, or die trying. Barnes & Noble's fate may prove to be no better.

Bottom line: Although some analysts were satisfied with B&N's step to suspend its dividends, the market doesn't like it at all and shows very little faith in the company this week. Therefore this week's grade for this parameter is going down to: 7 (9)

2. What analysts say on B&N

As mentioned, analysts supported the suspension of the dividends. Morningstar analyst Pete Wahlstrom said that, had the company not done so, investors would be asking, "if digital is so important, why are you shipping $57 million out the door annually ... instead of investing that cash?"(New York Times)

Here's another view that was presented this week - "While Barnes & Noble has a brighter future than Borders, the chain has “a long road ahead” before it becomes highly profitable. They aren’t out of the woods either. It still remains to be seen how competitive Barnes & Noble will be with e-books.” Michael Souers, an analyst for Standard & Poor’s in New York. He recommends holding B&N shares. (Bloomberg)

Last but not least, Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Fassler upgraded Barnes & Noble to neutral from sell ahead of the filing, though he tempered expectations as the benefits are "likely baked into the Street's thinking."

In all there are no big news from the analysts, who stay somewhat cautious and wait to see what the long road ahead will bring with it - bankruptcy or sustainable growth. This week's grade stays the same: 7 (7)

3. New strategy to regain sales in the brick and mortar stores
Morningstar analyst Peter Wahlstrom said that the Borders bankruptcy filing does little to change the fundamental challenges to Barnes & Noble’s business model. Attracting consumers by being the low-price provider in a commodity game is a strategy that the company ceded to Amazon.com years ago, so Barnes & Noble needs to have a differentiated product offering or shopping experience to stay relevant. Walhlstrom added that "the bulk of Nooks are being sold through stores where kiosks and support staff put the device front and center."

According to Forbes, B&N has also made some stride with educational toys and games, but stresses that it does not want to go out of its wheelhouse in an effort to draw in shoppers who wouldn’t normally enter its stores.

Bottom line: Just like Borders, B&N still doesn't have yet a clear and comprehensive strategy that will transform their brick and mortar stores from a liability back to an asset, even though "B&N continues to voice confidence in its own stores, describing them as critical to its digital future." (WSJ) This week showed us that B&N still thinks mainly on its digital strategy, forgetting for a minute that it's Barnes & Noble and not just bn.com. This week's grade stays the same: 4 (4)

4. What B&N is saying about itself

"We intend for Barnes & Noble to be a leader in the exploding market for digital content," CEO William Lynch said on a call with analysts, estimating that his company now commands 25% of the U.S. e-books market. As David Lazarus writes on the Los Angeles Times "that's all well and good, but it doesn't exactly bode well for the chain's brick-and-mortar stores." We couldn't say it better. This week's grade for this parameter stays the same: 6 (6)

5. Steps B&N is taking
1. Giving hints that it will look to possibly taking over locations left vacant by Borders -Thumbs down.

2. Opened its doors to authors in the PubIt! self-publishing program. eBookNewser reports that "since it launched four months ago, Barnes & Noble’s self-publishing software PubIt! has attracted more than 11,000 independent publishers and authors and published more than 65,000 eBooks … To promote this expansion, B&N is hosting in-store events teaching authors how to use PubIt! The first in-store event will take place tonight in the chain’s Santa Monica store.” - Thumbs up!

Bottom line: Nothing to write home (or the investors about). This week's grade stays the same: 6 (6)

6. Competitors
This parameter will mainly look into Borders and how its problems affect B&N.
This week TheStreet.com reports that B&N said during its conference call with Wall Street that it may open some stores in the locations being vacated by Borders. "CEO William Lynch said select Borders stores set to shutter "appear attractive to us," and he is hoping landlords may be willing to cut deals on rental costs. This raised questions from analysts about why Barnes & Noble would want to invest more in brick-and-mortar locations. Lynch said Barnes & Noble stores are still profitable and that most of Nook sales occur in stores."

I also don't see the logic here and really don't understand why B&N would put money into new stores instead of investing 110% of its efforts in strengthening the existing ones, and therefore our weekly grade for this parameter is going down in half a point:
5.5 (6)

7. Financial strength
Barnes & Noble published on Tuesday the results for the third quarter. It was a mixed report with both good and bad news.

Here are the good news:
1.
Revenue jumped 7% to $2.3 billion.
2. Comparable-store sales, a key retail indicator, grew 7.3% at the superstores.

Here are the bad news:
1. The company
suspended its dividend to preserve its shrinking cash reserves - Barnes & Noble previously offered an annual dividend of $1 a share.
2. B&N reported disappointing holiday quarter results - For the third quarter ended Jan. 29, the bookseller posted a profit of $60.6 million, or $1 a share, down from $80.4 million, or $1.38 a share, in the year-earlier period. Total net losses in the first three quarters of the current fiscal year have totaled $14.5 million.
3. Comparable-store sales at the college bookstore division fell 2.2%, with the retailer citing inclement weather as a key reason. That business accounts for just under a quarter of the company's sales.
4. Noting the situation at Borders, Barnes & Noble said it wouldn't issue any sales or earning guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2011.
5. Barnes & Noble reported it had $26.5 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand as of January 29, down from $40.2 million a year earlier. But Chief Financial Officer Joseph Lombardi told analysts the company has "ample financial capacity" to operate and develop its e-books business.

In all, the results were rather disappointing and therefore parameter's grade goes down in half a point: 7 (7.5)

8. Strength of the ebook business

As the Wall Street Journal reported this week, B&N has staked much of its future on its Nook e-reader line, so it was no surprise to hear its CEO William Lynch saying during a conference call to discuss earnings last week that "we intend for Barnes & Noble to be a leader in the exploding market for digital content." He added that "we now represent 25% of the e-book market in the U.S., larger than our share in physical books. We sell twice as many e-books as all formats of physical books combined on BN.com."

He announced that B&N canceled its quarterly dividend to free up $60 million for its digital strategies and other potential opportunities. Good news for BN.com, but is it good news for B&N at all? I am not sure at all..

Stronger emphasis on the digital business adds half a point to this week's grade is:
8 (7.5)

9. Sense of urgency
From the reports on the announcements of B&N this week on and following its quarterly report, it looks like B&N still think they have time and are not worried at all, or at least not worried enough to begin doing something with their brick and mortar stores. We believe this is not the case of course and if we can learn something from the Borders' case, it's how fast things go bad when your reach a certain tipping point of financial distress or distrust of your stakeholders (consumers or publishers for example). Therefore this week's grade goes down in half a point: 5.5 (6)

10. General feeling
This parameter will be an indication of our impression of all the materials read and analyzed for this index. Our feeling this week, after B&N's quarterly report is not too good. I also learned we're not the only one feeling this way when I saw Barnes & Noble in the list of
the Next 17 Big Companies That Are Heading Toward Bankruptcy on Business Insider, where B&N's financial distress risk was assessed as 8.23%. This week's grade is going down in half a point: 6 (6.5)

This week's Barnes & Noble Bankruptcy Index: 62 points (65)

As you can see, this week's index is set at 62 points, which translates into the scale of 60-69: B&N
doesn't look too good and bankruptcy is becoming a more realistic threat. Definitely not a good place to be at and too close to the red alert zone. Too close. In the meantime, it looks like B&N is still not in immediate trouble. See you next Wednesday.

To view the weekly changes in the index visit Barnes and Noble Bankruptcy Index on our website.

You can find more resources on the future of bookstores on our website at www.ecolibris.net/bookstores_future.asp

Yours,
Raz @ Eco-Libris

Eco-Libris: Working to green the book industry!

2.17.2011

Barnes & Noble Bankruptcy Index: Will B&N follow Borders?

Usually our weekly B&N bankruptcy index is published Wednesday, but since yesterday Borders filed for bankruptcy protection, we delayed it in one day to better digest the sad, although expected news, and see how they reflect on this week's index.

Just a short reminder - As Borders filed for bankruptcy, we look at Barnes & Noble, the nation's largest book chain to see if they will follow Borders and also go into bankruptcy and if so, when exactly.

To do it more analytically we launched 3 weeks ago a new B&N Bankruptcy Index, which is based on 10 parameters, which receive a grade between 1-10 (1 - worst grade, 10 - best grade). Hence we receive a 0-100 point index scale, which we divide into several ranges as follows:

90-100: B&N is in an excellent shape. Couldn't be better!
80-89: B&N is doing great. Bankruptcy is no longer a real threat.
70-79: B&N could do better and has to be cautious of bankruptcy.
60-69: B&N doesn't look too good and bankruptcy is becoming a more realistic threat.
50-59: Bankruptcy is a clear and present danger.
49 and less: Red alert! Bankruptcy is just around the corner and is likely to happen within a short time frame.

We will check the
B&N Bankruptcy Index every Wednesday, updating each one of the parameters included in the index and will analyze the trend. You can follow the weekly changes in the index from the day it was launched on the Barnes and Noble Bankruptcy Index page on our website.

So here's our update for this week (in brackets is last week's grade):

1. Confidence of the stock market in B&N

This parameter will look at the performance of the B&N stock (symbol:
BKS) in the last week. The performance of B&N's stock is an indication of the confidence the market has in the ability of B&N to maintain a viable business.

So let's look at last week's figures:


2/8: $17.11

2/16: $18.77

Change: +9.7%


As you can see, B&N's stock did very well the in the past week. They did much better comparing to both the S&P500 Index (+0.89%) and Amazon (+1.94%). In other words, the markets believe B&N will benefit from Borders' bankruptcy and will get stronger in the post-Borders' bankruptcy era (see for example Alyce Lomax on the Motley Fool).
This week's grade for this parameter is: 9 (8.5)

2. What analysts say on B&N

As mentioned above analysts believe that the bankruptcy of Borders will have a positive impact on B&N: "Although the impact of Borders’s bankruptcy won’t be as great on Barnes & Noble as it would have been five years ago, “the majority of book sales are still physical books,” Michael Souers, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s in New York, said in an interview. “Overall, it’s a benefit for Barnes & Noble.” (Bloomberg)

On the New York Times Michael Souers looked at the bigger picture and was a little less optimistic: “The book retailing industry is very challenging right now. We’ve had significant transformation. Bookstores have gradually been losing their prominence, and the U.S. market is oversaturated in terms of the number of retail stores. So that trend will likely continue as e-books gain more prevalence in the market.”

In all there are no big news from the analysts - it's still about gains in the short-term and structural problems are a threat in the long-term. Therefore this week's grade stays the same: 7 (7)

3. New strategy to regain sales in the brick and mortar stores
Just like Borders, B&N still doesn't have a a clear and comprehensive strategy that will transform their brick and mortar stores from a liability back to an asset.
This week's grade stays the same: 4 (4)

4. What B&N is saying about itself

We haven't find any updates here so this week's week's grade for this parameter stays the same: 6 (6)

5. Steps B&N is taking
This week Barnes and Noble's main action (or at least the one that got most media attention) was to post an open letter to Amazon affiliates, seeking to lure them to the retailer's fold. As PC Magazine reported, B&N's letter to the affiliates was posted online on Monday in response to Amazon's threats to cut off its affiliates in states that charge sales tax (i.e. Texas).


This week's grade is: 6 (6)

6. Competitors
This parameter will mainly look into Borders and how its problems affect B&N.
This week Borders filed for bankruptcy and announced it will close in the next couple of weeks about 200 stores nationwide. Unlike most analysts, we feel that Borders' bankruptcy can do more harm than good to B&N, but it's really premature and we'll have to wait at least couple more weeks to know more. Our weekly grade for this parameter is: 6 (6)

7. Financial strength
B&N's latest financial report was published on November 2010 for its second quarter, which ended Oct. 30. Yesterday B&N announced the company will report fiscal 2011 third quarter earnings results next Tuesday, February 22nd. So there's no change here from last week and therefore this parameter's grade stays the same: 7.5 (7.5)

8. Strength of the ebook business

No news on this front (maybe we should call it e-front?), although almost every article on Borders reminded the Nook and B&N's online presence as important factors that helps B&N to avoid bankruptcy ("The largest U.S. bookstore chain, Barnes & Noble, has had success with its and online store, allowing it to stay in contention with online book pioneer Amazon.com." - Yahoo! News). This week's grade is: 7.5 (7.5)

9. Sense of urgency
Maybe B&N think they still have time but this is not the case of course and if we can learn something from the Borders' case, it's how fast things go bad when your reach a certain tipping point of financial distress or distrust of your stakeholders (consumers or publishers for example). Therefore this parameter will try to look into B&N's sense of urgency. No news on this front this week and this parameter's grade stays the same: 6 (6)

10. General feeling
This parameter will be an indication of our impression of all the materials read and analyzed for this index. Our feeling this week, after the bankruptcy of Borders is that B&N still doesn't see it as a wake-up call. This week's grade is: 6.5 (6.5)

This week's Barnes & Noble Bankruptcy Index: 65 points (64.5)

As you can see, this week's index is set at 65 points, which translates into the scale of 60-69: B&N
doesn't look too good and bankruptcy is becoming a more realistic threat. Definitely not a good place to be at, but it could definitely get worst as you can learn from the situation at Borders, although we definitely hope it won't! In the meantime, it looks like B&N is still not in immediate trouble. We'll have more information about it next Wednesday after they will publish their quarterly report. See you next Wednesday.

To view the weekly changes in the index visit Barnes and Noble Bankruptcy Index on our website.

You can find more resources on the future of bookstores on our website at www.ecolibris.net/bookstores_future.asp

Yours,
Raz @ Eco-Libris

Eco-Libris: Working to green the book industry!

2.09.2011

Barnes & Noble Bankruptcy Index: The failure of Groupon's special coupon deal

While Borders, the nation’s second-largest book chain, is on the verge of bankruptcy, we continue to look at Barnes & Noble, the nation's largest book chain to see if they follow will Borders and go into bankruptcy and if so, when exactly.

Two weeks ago we launched a new B&N Bankruptcy Index, which is based on 10 parameters, which receive a grade between 1-10 (1 - worst grade, 10 - best grade). Hence we receive a 0-100 point index scale, which we divide into several ranges as follows:

90-100: B&N is in an excellent shape. Couldn't be better!
80-89: B&N is doing great. Bankruptcy is no longer a real threat.
70-79: B&N could do better and has to be cautious of bankruptcy.
60-69: B&N doesn't look good and bankruptcy is becoming a real threat.
50-59: Bankruptcy is a clear and present danger.
49 and less: Red alert! Bankruptcy is just around the corner and is likely to happen within a short time frame.

We will check the
B&N Bankruptcy Index every Wednesday, updating each one of the parameters included in the index and will analyze the trend. You can follow the weekly changes in the index from the day it was launched on the Barnes and Noble Bankruptcy Index page on our website.

So here we go (in brackets is last week's grade):

1. Confidence of the stock market in B&N

This parameter will look at the performance of the B&N stock (symbol:
BKS) in the last week. The performance of B&N's stock is an indication of the confidence the market has in the ability of B&N to maintain a viable business.

So let's look at last week's figures:


2/2: $16.41

2/8: $17.11

Change: +4.2%


As you can see, B&N's stock did pretty well the past week. They did much better comparing to the S&P500 Index (+1.57%), but not as good as Amazon (5.49%). In other words, the markets still believe in B&N, unlike the situation of Borders, for example, which continues to go down - last week (2/2-2/8) the stock went down by 7.69%.
This week's grade for this parameter is: 8.5 (8.5)

2. What analysts say on B&N

We haven't find any updates here so this week's week's grade for this parameter stays the same: 7 (7)

3. New strategy to regain sales in the brick and mortar stores
Just like Borders, B&N still doesn't have a a clear and comprehensive strategy that will transform their brick and mortar stores from a liability back to an asset.

This week was all about the Groupon offer (
$10 for $20 Worth of Toys and Games, Books and More at Barnes & Noble). With regards to B&N's brick and mortar strategy, this deal only showed the lack of strategy. As we asked B&N last Friday, if you already go with a nation-wide deal and offer such a great offer, why not to use it to make your stores stronger by limiting it just to purchasing in stores? Your problem is with brick and mortar sales, not your online sales. Wouldn't this deal be a great incentive to bring back customers to stores?? Anyway, they didn't do it and therefore this week's grade is going down: 4 (4.5)

4. What B&N is saying about itself

We haven't find any updates here so this week's week's grade for this parameter stays the same: 6 (6)

5. Steps B&N is taking
This week was as we said all about the Groupon special deal. It was supposed to be not just a special deal but also a way of creating positive momentum and presenting B&N's strength to those who wonder what's their situation. It was also in a way
a reply to Amazon's deal from last month. Amazon offered the same offer ($20 coupon for $10) on LivingSocial. But even if the offers were similar, in terms of results they totally different.

Amazon's offer was a huge success - according to PCMag.com Amazon sold 1,378,938 coupons in a single day. Now, nor Groupon neither B&N provided information on the results of B&N's deal, and since the deal was area based it's not so simple to get the results by yourself, but we tried and looked into the number of B&N coupons sold on the 6 largest cities in the U.S.:

New York City - 26, 629
Los Angeles - 21,557
Chicago - 75,221
Houston - 10,272
Phoenix - 11,674
Philadelphia - 9,940
Total: 155,293 coupons.

Even if we assume that the total number of coupons sold on all areas was two times than this figure (i.e. 310,000 coupons), we still look at less than 25% of what Amazon achieved and Amazon, to remind you, did it in a single day, whereas B&N's deal was going on for 3 days. In other words, consumers don't really find B&N that attractive in comparison with its competitors. Not that we didn't have an idea that this was the case, but this deal came and provided a very interesting example enabling us to compare what you might call the "attractiveness factor" of both Amazon and B&N. Well, Amazon won. T
his week's grade is: 5.5 (6)

6. Competitors
This parameter will mainly look into Borders and how its problems affect B&N.
This week it looks like Borders' bankruptcy is closer than ever.

Borders are still on the verge of bankruptcy. Only today, Al Greco, a book publishing expert and professor of marketing at Fordham University's Graduate School of Business Administration, is quoted on NewsObserver.com saying that "he expected the company to seek bankruptcy protection soon. "It's pretty clear they will file for bankruptcy; it's just a question of when," he said. "Borders at one time was an unbelievably impressive bookstore chain - people loved it. The day they go into bankruptcy will not be a happy day for publishers, authors and readers."

As we mentioned earlier, there are positive and negative effects to the upcoming bankruptcy on B&N. On the positive side, for example, Stifel Nicolaus stated that the sector pressures on Borders may give "breathing room" to Barnes & Noble strategic and operational decisions. On the negative side, Borders' bankruptcy might show that what was once was unthinkable when you talked about the big book chains, is now a realistic option. We feel that Borders' bankruptcy can do more harm than good to B&N and as Borders seems to getting closer and closer to bankruptcy our weekly grade for this parameter is: 6 (6.5)

7. Financial strength
B&N's latest financial report was published on November 2010 for its second quarter, which ended Oct. 30. Yesterday B&N announced the company will report fiscal 2011 third quarter earnings results on Tuesday, February 22nd.

So there's no change here from last week, even though the Groupon offer will cost B&N around $2.1 million (155,293 coupons x13.5 average loss on each one of them, which includes the $10 discount and Groupon's estimated fee). Therefore this parameter's grade stays the same: 7.5 (7.5)

8. Strength of the ebook business

No news on this front (maybe we should call it e-front?). This week's grade is: 7.5 (7.5)

9. Sense of urgency
Maybe B&N think they still have time but this is not the case of course and if we can learn something from the Borders' case, it's how fast things go bad when your reach a certain tipping point of financial distress or distrust of your stakeholders (consumers or publishers for example). Therefore this parameter will try to look into B&N's sense of urgency.

No news on this front as well The week's grade is: 6 (6)

10. General feeling
This parameter will be an indication of our impression of all the materials read and analyzed for this index. Our feeling this week, after the Groupon offer is that B&N still lacks a comprehensive strategy to address its problems as well as a clear idea how to bring customers again to its stores. Moreover, the failure of this deal in comparison to Amazon's deal only shows how deep B&N's problems are. Therefore this week's grade is: 6.5 (7)

This week's Barnes & Noble Bankruptcy Index: 64.5 points (66.5)

As you can see, this week's index is set at 64.5 points, which translates into the scale of 60-69: B&N doesn't look good and bankruptcy is becoming a real threat. Definitely not a good place to be at, but it could definitely get worst, although we hope it won't! See you next Wednesday.

To view the weekly changes in the index visit Barnes and Noble Bankruptcy Index on our website.

You can find more resources on the future of bookstores on our website at www.ecolibris.net/bookstores_future.asp

Yours,
Raz @ Eco-Libris

Eco-Libris: Working to green the book industry!

2.04.2011

Great offer of Barnes and Noble on Groupon ($10 for $20), but why not limit it just to stores?

Groupon just sent an offer you can't refuse: $10 for $20 Worth of Toys and Games, Books and More at Barnes & Noble.

Sounds great, no? 50% savings is always a good offer and it's not limited to a specific area like most of Groupon's deals, but "is valid for purchases made online, at any of more than 700 Barnes & Noble retail locations, or on Barnes & Noble's e-reader, the Nook."

B&N are following here Amazon that offered last month on LivingSocial.com a similar nation-wide deal on a $20 Amazon gift card - 50% off for $10. That offer was a huge success and Amazon sold 1,301,296 gift cards in a single day.

But here's a little question for Barnes and Noble: If you already go with a nation-wide deal and offer such a great offer, why not to use it to make your stores stronger by limiting it just to purchasing in stores? Your problem is with brick and mortar sales, not your online sales. Wouldn't this deal be a great incentive to bring back customers to stores??

Yours,
Raz @ Eco-Libris

Eco-Libris: Promoting sustainable reading!